break-even

Once you've decided to buy, the next decision is the loan itself — and the most misunderstood lever on it is discount points. A point is cash paid at closing, conventionally 1% of the loan, that buys your interest rate down a notch. A lower rate means a smaller monthly payment and less interest over the life of the loan, so points look like a pure win. They aren't free, though: you hand over the money today, while the savings dribble back a little every month. That makes buying down your rate the same shape of decision as renting versus buying — a break-even that hinges on how long you stay. The break-even is simply the up-front cost divided by the monthly saving: pay $8,000 in points to cut your payment by about $130 a month and you start ahead only after roughly five years. Keep the loan past that point and the points were a bargain; sell the house, refinance, or pay the loan off early before then and you'd have been better off keeping the cash and taking the higher rate. The simulator plots the running net position of paying for points: it starts underwater by the cost of the points, climbs as the lower payment saves money each month, and crosses into the black at the break-even. The exact same arithmetic governs refinancing — closing costs paid now against a lower payment later — so the mental model you build here transfers directly. The durable lesson: a lower rate is worth paying for only if you'll keep the loan long enough to collect the savings.