Risk vs. Return Simulator

Risk and return are two sides of one coin: no asset offers a high expected return without a wide range of possible outcomes, because that range is exactly what investors must be paid to bear. This lesson makes the trade-off visible with a Monte-Carlo 'outcome cone' — the simulator rolls hundreds of possible futures for the same lump sum and shades the band between the good and bad cases, with the median path through the middle. Dragging the asset class from savings to bonds to stocks to aggressive fans the cone wider and lifts it higher at the same time: more expected growth, but also a higher chance of ending below what you put in and deeper drawdowns to hold through. The durable lessons: volatility is the fare you pay for the chance at growth, not a flaw to engineer away; a longer horizon shrinks the chance of ending underwater (time diversification) even as the dollar range widens; and the right amount of risk is the most you can hold through a bad year without selling. Definitions of expected return, volatility, drawdown, and the risk/return trade-off are built up from the chart.

Free and interactive — no sign-up, nothing to install. Read the full lesson for the plain-language explanation.