Sequence Risk Calculator

Sequence-of-returns risk is the idea that the order in which returns arrive — not just their average — affects your final balance, whenever money is flowing in or out. A buy-and-hold lump sum is completely immune: the same crash multiplies your pile by the same amount wherever it lands. But the moment you add money on a schedule, timing matters, and it cuts in a surprising direction. While you're accumulating, you actually want a crash to come early: it lands on a small balance and then puts years of future contributions on sale, so it barely dents the finish — whereas the identical crash near retirement guts a balance you spent decades building, with no time to recover. This is the mirror image of a retiree, who is most fragile to a bad start. This lesson takes one otherwise-steady market, drops a single crash into it, and lets you slide that crash from early to late — plotting your ending balance as a curve that falls the later the crash hits, with a flat line for the timing-immune lump sum. The durable lesson: judge a plan by the timing risk it's exposed to, not just the average it assumes — and if you're young and still adding money, an early bear market is a gift, not a disaster.

Free and interactive — no sign-up, nothing to install. Read the full lesson for the plain-language explanation.